The claim
The publication of the All Wales Convention’s social research report has furnished a greater depth and range of information about the Welsh public’s attitudes towards devolution than any other contemporary source. In the discussion thread of an earlier article I suggested that it would be good to learn about the intensity – rather than just the level – of support for greater powers. In polling parlance what was missing was an indication of how “hard” or “soft” the numbers are. The All Wales Convention’s report doesn’t quite supply that measure, but it nonetheless elaborates on what is a complex picture. Sadly, a WAG official told me this week they that they have no plans to publish the full dataset, and will only upload it to the UK Data Archive at some yet-to-be-determined date. Given that public money has funded this research, a greater commitment to transparency would have been welcome.
Many of the findings have not been discussed, and attention has understandably focused on the gap in referendum voting intentions. Politics Cymru, a site that has rapidly grown beyond blogging into a media outlet in its own right interviewed Nick Bourne, Rachel Banner (of True Wales) and Bethan Jenkins and it is from the latter that today’s claim comes. Jenkins says of the findings that:
The result shows there is stark contrast between who want more powers than those who don’t, and there are still a lot of people who are undecided…
This seemingly innocuous statement is actually is a crucial assertion in the ongoing debate about whether the time is right to launch a “yes” campaign with a view to holding a referendum. Put simply, if it is shown that the proportion of undecided voters can still tip the result against the proposition, the decision to hold a vote is more likely to be put off. So, how does it stand up?
The evidence
Since the Government of Wales Act 2006 we have had four published polls seeking to measure voting intentions in a future referendum:1
Fieldwork Poll Yes No DK
Jun ’07 BBC Wales/ICM 47% 44% 9%
Feb ’08 BBC Wales/ICM 49% 42% 9%
Dec ’08 AWC/GfkNOP 48% 35% 13%
Feb ’09 BBC Wales/ICM 52% 39% 9%
By comparison, there were eight published opinion polls between the end of 1996 and referendum day in September 1997:2
Oct ’96 n/a 39% 32% 28%
Mar ’97 n/a 41% 33% 27%
Apr ’97 n/a 34% 27% 30%
Jul ’97 n/a 39% 27% 34%
July ’97 n/a 43% 29% 28%
Aug ’97 Beaufort 42% 22% 36%
Sept’ 97 HTV 37% 36% 26%
Sept’ 97 n/a 37% 29% 34%
Some care needs to be taken compared these sets of polls. Five of the 1997 polls, for example, were conducted after the decision to go ahead with a referendum had been taken, something that is likely to have conditioned voters’ views. Nevertheless, on the basis of this evidence it would appear that comparatively few voters are undecided, and indeed the trend would seem to suggest that the don’t knows may not be able to influence the outcome.
So does this mean that there is no good reason to hold off launching a “yes’ campaign and proceeding to a referendum? Not necessarily. The qualitative component of the AWC research found a clear “softness” in the level of support, with most people occupying what it termed as the “cautious optimist” position, characterised by being “broadly in favour of increased powers…but [with] key concerns and questions about its implications.” Moreover, the research found as a result of a detailed debate “those who were ‘strongly’ in favour began to question the details of increased powers and tended to move towards being ‘cautious optimists’”. On the basis of this, there may be a significant chunk of “yes” supporters whose mind is far from made up.
There are other areas that should also give some pause to proponents of an early referendum. Fully one in four respondents believe that the term “full law making powers” means that “Wales will be independent from the UK”. Given the recent focus on independence by Plaid Cymru, coupled with the fact that the research finds an very low level of support for this constitutional outcome, this is a conflation that could also act as a drag on support. Those who want primary powers for Wales might be advised to foreswear a campaign for independence at this time, if for no other reason than to avoid confusing the electorate still further.
The conclusion: Debunked
It is not right to say that a lot of people are undecided. Indeed, by comparison with the last referendum, very few are. However, a more detailed look at the All Wales Convention’s findings shows that the high levels of support are not necessarily reflected in the intensity of support. Moreover, it seems that the specific question of what law making powers entails needs to be be clearly addressed before the electorate will feel confident casting its vote.
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1 The BBC Wales question was “If there were to be a referendum on turning the National Assembly into a full law making Welsh Parliament, how would you vote…”. AWC asked “If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales full law making powers in these areas, how would you vote?”
2 See McCrone, D and Lewis, B “The Scottish and Welsh referendum campaigns” in Scotland and Wales: Nations Again? (Ed. Taylor, B and Thomson, K), (1999), University of Wales Press
